Simulation

How to build a market you can experiment on

Companies know a small, biased slice of their market, but decades of research on human behaviour is stable. How MCMC, Bayesian networks, VAEs and self-organising maps turn known constraints into a plausible synthetic population.

8 min read

Your internal data only records the interactions you have already had. What is far better documented — and far more stable — is human behaviour itself: how age conditions income, income conditions price sensitivity, digital habits condition response to a format.

The constraints you know arrive aggregated and disconnected. MCMC methods disaggregate them into coherent individuals, Bayesian networks encode the causal chains between their attributes, and VAEs plus self-organising maps turn the population into a navigable geography where similar profiles sit close together — which is how you find demand that no traditional metric has surfaced yet.

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